FA Cup's 10 greatest giant killings as 'one in 16 million upset' takes top spot

The FA Cup third round is back this weekend as clubs up and down the country battle it out in the world's oldest cup competition.

In many fans' eyes, the third round is the best weekend of the footballing calendar, when sides from the lower reaches of the pyramid get their chance to face more established opposition.

The romanticism attached to the FA Cup comes from its history, but also a format which is built for upsets.

There have been plenty of opportunities for those to happen since the first season way back in 1871.

Everyone has their favourite, but now mathematicians have got together to try and provide a definitive answer to the question: what is the greatest giant killing in FA Cup history?

Dr Adwaye Rambojun and Professor Andreas Kyprianou from the Institute for Mathematical Innovation at the University of Bath have looked at Opta data from more than 8,000 FA Cup ties from the past 50 years to find the answer.

The mathematicians have developed a model which considers the probability of the lower league teams reaching the third round, the difference in league status between the two sides and the timing and sequence of the goals scored in each tie to draw their conclusions.

Each result, going back to the 1959/60 season, has then been ranked by the statistical probability to whittle them down to a top 10.

So on the eve of the FA Cup's third round in the 2021/22 season, here are the competition's biggest upsets...

10 Newport County 2-1 Leicester City (2019) - 1 in 337

Kicking us off is a tie which should still be fresh in the memory.

Newport came into the third round tie 74 places below Leicester in the football pyramid, but produced an impressive performance to down the Premier League side.

The League Two team took the lead through Jamille Matt's header in the 10th minute before Rachid Ghezzal levelled in the 82nd minute for the Foxes.

But the Exiles weren't done, with Padraig Amond's penalty following a handball by Marc Albrighton three minutes later giving Newport a substantial scalp.

9 Derby County 1-3 Bristol Rovers (2002) - 1 in 397

Nathan Ellington was the hero for Bristol Rovers 20 years ago, with the striker scoring a hat-trick to ensure they became the first team from what was then the Third Division to beat a Premier League team away from home in the competition.

Rovers were 87th out of 92 league clubs at the time but punched well above their weight to down Derby, whose misery was completed later that year by relegation from the top flight.

8 Harlow Town 1-0 Leicester City (1980) - 1 in 1,800

Leicester were once again the victims of an upset. This time it was Harlow Town of the Isthmian League who were to celebrate a remarkable win.

The Foxes were promoted to the top flight that season yet could not get past Harlow in their third round replay after a 1-1 draw.

Almost 10,000 crammed into the Harlow Sports Centre and were rewarded with a John MacKenzie goal which downed a team which contained a young Gary Lineker.

7 Burnley 0-1 Wimbledon (1975) - 1 in 2,515

Burnley were near the top of the First Division. Wimbledon were in the Southern League, but they didn't play like it.

Mick Mahon was the match-winner for Allen Batsford's side, who became the first non-league team in 55 years to defeat top-flight opposition on their own ground.

6 Sutton United 2-1 Coventry City (1989) - 1 in 3,260

Sutton were managed by English teacher Barrie Williams and were facing a Coventry side who had won the competition just 18 months beforehand.

Goals from Tony Rains and Matthew Hanlan did the damage for the First Division side, who left Surrey defeated, with their league form counting for nothing.

HAVE YOUR SAY! What is your most memorable FA Cup upset? Comment below.

5 Oxford United 3-2 Swansea City (2016) - 1 in 3,487

Oxford were in League Two when they drew Premier League side Swansea in the third round of the FA Cup in 2016.

They went behind to Jefferson Montero's strike, but weren't daunted, hitting back with three goals in 14 times either side of half-time as Kemar Roofe netted twice.

In doing so, Oxford became the first fourth-tier side to eliminate Premier League opposition from the FA Cup since Swindon beat Wigan in January 2012.

4 Birmingham City 1-2 Altrincham (1986) - 1 in 4,376

Non-league Altrincham had held Everton and Tottenham to draws in the 1970s, but their crowning achievement came in 1986 against Birmingham.

The Alliance Premier League side went behind to increase the difficulty before roaring back through Ronnie Ellis' strike.

Birmingham goalscorer Robert Hopkins then netted an own goal past David Seaman to give the Cheshire side a famous win.

3 Stevenage 3-1 Newcastle United (2011) - 1 in 7,712

Stevenage were enjoying their first season in the Football League when they drew Newcastle in the third round of the FA Cup.

After a goalless first half, Stevenage took control through goals from Stacy Long and Michael Bostwick.

Cheick Tiote was then sent off and although Joey Barton pulled one back, Peter Winn sealed a famous victory in front of 6,644 fans in injury time.

2 Hereford United 2-1 Newcastle United (1972) - 1 in 32,449

Probably the most famous result in FA Cup history - but it's not the competition's biggest upset.

Newcastle were once again the victims of an upset. Having been held to a 2-2 draw at St James' Park, the Bulls welcomed the First Division side to Edgar Street for the replay.

Malcolm Macdonald appeared to be sending the Magpies through when Ronnie Radford blasted in the most famous goal in FA Cup history from 35 yards to send the match into extra time. Ricky George then provided the coup de grace to send 14,313 fans into ecstasy.

1 West Bromwich Albion 2-4 Woking (1991) - 1 in 15,959,312

Woking are the proud owners of the FA Cup's biggest upset, according to the mathematical model. If this match was played 15,959,312, West Brom would win 15,959,311 of them. But on that day the game did not go as expected.

Woking were in the Isthmian League in 1991, while the Baggies were in the Second Division.

West Brom took the lead through Colin West, but Tim Buzaglo was the hero of the piece, scoring a remarkable 11-minute hat-trick to turn things around for the away side.

"I remember sitting there after the match thinking: 'Am I dreaming? This can't be happening. We're from Surrey, nobodies, what's going on here?'," Woking manager Geoff Chapple told the FA.

"Our players were part-time. We had couriers, painters, decorators and builders. But I always used to instil in them that anything was possible, especially in the FA Cup, and this result proved it."

For more details about the Emirates FA Cup visit TheFA.com