Beto or Dominic Calvert-Lewin: Who should start up front for Everton?

Another frustrating afternoon full of missed chances saw the Toffees squander a lead to lose at home to West Ham United last weekend, marking their seventh home league defeat of the season already.

In attack, Dyche's options are binary, stick with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, or give new signing Beto an extended run in the side.

Calvert-Lewin dropped to the bench for the clash with West Ham after an early substitution against Brighton & Hove Albion the week previous, handing Beto a rare opportunity from the start.

Here, we will analyse the two players, comparing strengths and weaknesses, and decide who Dyche should go with in his starting XI for that trip to Old Trafford.

EVERTON'S ATTACKING WOES

The big talking point within the Everton fanbase throughout the week has been whether Dyche should stick with Beto, or revert back to Calvert-Lewin, following another agonising late defeat.

Beto made headlines both positively and negatively for his performance against the Hammers, missing a first-half penalty, but doing something which Calvert-Lewin has been unable to do for 21 matches - score a goal.

The stats overwhelmingly favour Beto as well, given Calvert-Lewin's struggles this season, as the Everton number nine has just three goals in 1599 Premier League minutes this season, and none since October.

Beto, on the other hand, has only scored twice, but done so in just 639 minutes, averaging a goal every 320 minutes, compared to 533 for Calvert-Lewin.

Furthermore, the majority of Beto's minutes have come off the bench when Everton are frantically chasing a game, or just looking to hold on to a win or a draw in the latter stages, given Dyche's renowned pragmatic approach.

No striker in the Premier has underperformed their xG more than Calvert-Lewin this season either, with just three goals from an xG of 9.38, and the Everton forward is a long way clear of any other player in that regard, as Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson is next on that list, underperforming by 4.3.

Beto himself has not performed too well in comparison with his xG though, skewed mainly due to his penalty miss last week, as the Portuguese front man has underperformed by 3.33.

It is therefore no surprise to see Everton as a team are hugely underperforming in their xG overall, as their current goal tally of 29 is a long way short of their expected figure of 44.6 - by some distance the largest disparity in the division - Brentford are the next poorest with -6.4.

One thing that is up for debate is how much can be attributed to bad luck, or just simply poor finishing, as WhoScored's rating system shows that the three best individual goalkeeping performances of the season have come from Alphonse Areola, Bernd Leno and Jose Sa - all against Everton.

Areola's 10 saves last week (including one from the penalty spot) has been ranked as the best performance by any keeper in the league this season, while Leno's nine saves and Sa's seven in Everton's first two home games of the season make up the top three.

The 'big chances missed' metric makes for grim reading to Everton fans, as the side has missed a combined 22 across their seven home league defeats this season - including four last weekend against West Ham, and five in defeats to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Luton Town.

Looking more positively, what was noticeable about Beto starting was his ability to occupy defenders, and how dominant Everton were in attack with him on the pitch, even if they were incapable of taking the chances when they came.

The 26-year-old took his goal well from James Garner's sublime delivery, and Everton created chances at will, in part thanks to his hold-up play, aerial threat, and pace in behind.

In comparison, Calvert-Lewin is not as quick, and struggles with the technical side of the game, with his hold-up play and heading ability the main strengths to his game.

However, in his most recent starts against Brighton and Crystal Palace, Everton created next-to-nothing, with Calvert-Lewin cutting a frustrated figure in attack, struggling to trouble centre-backs like he did during Carlo Ancelotti's reign at the club.

A club struggling at the bottom would rather be creating chances and missing them, as opposed to not creating anything at all though, as Everton were doing for large periods under Rafael Benitez and Frank Lampard.

EVERTON'S STRENGTH

There is no doubting that the team is also aided heavily by their fantastic defence, which has bailed out the attackers on numerous occasions this season.

Young Jarrad Branthwaite has been mentored excellently by captain James Tarkowski, and looks likely to be in the England setup sooner rather than later.

Everton are also less reliant on Jordan Pickford as they are conceding much fewer big chances, shown by the fact that their tally of conceding on average just 0.1xG-per-shot is only bettered by Arsenal.

Only Arsenal and Liverpool have more clean sheets, and those two clubs and Manchester City are the only sides to have conceded fewer goals in the Premier League this season.

Some bad fortune has gone against the Toffees going the other way recently, as wonder goals from Richarlison, Jordan Ayew and Tomas Soucek have all cost them points in their last three home outings, while they only conceded their first headed goal of the season to Lewis Dunk in injury time to Brighton two weeks ago.

Ultimately though, the defence is the only thing keeping Everton out of the bottom three, and they enter the weekend 16th, five points ahead of Luton, but without the altered six-point penalty, they would be above Bournemouth in 13th, with 31 points.

WHO SHOULD START?

While Calvert-Lewin is likely to come back into the side, Beto's all-round performance last week should be appreciated, and give Dyche food for thought about the sort of impact he could have when starting.

A striker on a 21-game scoring drought will need some time out of the side simply to remove himself from the firing line, as Calvert-Lewin has come in for some heavy criticism from the supporters who have so often supported him throughout his injury nightmares of the past two years.

Against a Man United defence that is weakened with injury, and demoralised after a derby day defeat last weekend though, the relentless work ethic, and power of Beto could provide Erik ten Hag's men with a problem, and many Everton supporters would be glad to see him in the starting XI on Saturday lunchtime.