Ballon d'Or 2024 predictions: Will Vinicius Junior or Rodri win this year's award?

As the prolific pair wind down their careers in MLS and the Saudi Pro League, 30 players who have never posed with the trophy make up a star-studded 2024 shortlist ahead of Monday's ceremony at Paris' Theatre du Chatelet.

An accolade that used to be awarded for a player's achievements over a calendar year, the 2024 prize will be the third one in a row where feats throughout the whole of the 2023-24 season - including the European Championships and Copa America - are recognised by the international jury of journalists casting the votes.

In this day and age of online leaks and social media, there is little suspense about the Ballon d'Or anymore, with many outlets reporting the winner before the stars have scrubbed up and posed for photos on the red carpet.

This time around, Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior is expected to take the coveted walk up the stairs to collect the trophy, but his Blancos teammate Jude Bellingham and Manchester City lynchpin Rodri are outside contenders.

Here, the Sports Mole team discuss who they think should win the 2024 Ballon d'Or.

Barney Corkhill - Rodri

It looks like Vinicius Junior will take the 2024 award, and there are plenty of good reasons as to why he would deserve it, but personally I think Rodri has been the most influential and important player in world football over the last year or so.

It speaks volumes that a team with the strength and depth of Man City struggle so much in his absence compared to when he is in the team. For all of their world-class players, Rodri is the one truly irreplaceable player in that side, and even one of the greatest managers of all time in Pep Guardiola had a difficult time finding an answer to his absence.

While 2023-24 might not have been quite as successful at club level for Rodri compared to the 2022-23 treble-winning campaign, he did still help Man City to an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title, as well as winning the FIFA Club World Cup and UEFA Super Cup, and reaching an FA Cup final, during the voting period for the 2024 Ballon d'Or, all while stringing together a ridiculous unbeaten streak during his time on the pitch.

Perhaps the strongest argument comes from his achievements for Spain, though, as he helped his country to Euro 2024 glory and was voted player of the tournament to boot.

Team success should not be the be all and end all for an individual award, but Rodri's mix of silverware and absolute importance to both his club and country gives him the edge of Vini for me.

Ben Knapton - Rodri

The head says Rodri, the heart says Bellingham, the gut says Vinicius. As much as I expect the latter to become the first Brazilian since Kaka to win the Ballon d'Or, Rodri would be collecting the honour if I was on a one-man jury.

In a season where Man City could not always call upon the creative genius of an ageing and increasingly injury-prone Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri stepped up to the plate and then some, continuously going from strength to strength in terms of attacking contributions.

For a supposed defensive midfielder - who excels in that part of the game too - Rodri had a direct hand in 23 goals in 50 appearances across all competitions last season, nine of his own and 14 assists, to help the Citizens complete an astonishing Premier League four-peat.

Not only that, the 28-year-old was a fundamental figure in Spain's Euro 2024 triumph, where he was named the player of the tournament, while Vinicius's Brazil could not make it past the quarter-finals of the Copa America.

City's FA Cup and Champions League shortcomings may cost Rodri the prize, but for me, the omnipotent Spaniard is the best player on the planet and should be rewarded as such.

Matt Law - Rodri

Vinicius and Rodri are rightly the favourites, with the winner set to come from one of those two.

Vinicius was excellent for Real Madrid during the 2023-24 campaign, scoring 24 goals and registering 11 assists in 39 appearances, helping Los Blancos to win a La Liga and Champions League double.

Rodri also enjoyed an outstanding 2023-24 season for Man City, scoring nine goals and registering 14 assists in 50 appearances in all competitions, and he then helped Spain win Euro 2024.

The midfielder was, of course, replaced at the interval of the final through injury, but he had been outstanding until that point, and I would just side with Rodri due to his success with his international team.

Vinicius' Brazil only reached the quarter-finals of the Copa America, but his club form last season was so exemplary that it is tough to deny him.

Either Vinicius or Rodri would be a worthy winner, but even though it is slightly unfashionable, I would just go with Rodri as his numbers during the 2023-24 season for a largely defensive midfielder were exceptional.

Oliver Thomas - Rodri

If reports are to be believed, Vinicius Junior looks set to receive this year's prestigious prize, and the Real Madrid star is rightly among the frontrunners to come out on top, but my vote would go to Rodri.

Widely regarded as the best holding midfielder on the planet, the 28-year-old has established himself as arguably the most influential player for two of the most dominant teams in world football - Man City and Spain. His impact from a central position, contributing at both ends of the pitch, in every phase of play, is undeniable.

Up until his season-ending injury in September, Rodri had lost just one game for club and country in 18 months - truly remarkable! He missed four Premier League games for Man City last season and Pep Guardiola's side were beaten in three of them, emphasising his importance when present for the Citizens.

Rodri was central to his club's successes last season, winning the UEFA Super Cup, Club World Cup and an unprecedented fourth successive Premier League title. Unlike Vinicius Junior, Rodri also stepped up for his country in 2024 and was named Player of the Tournament as Spain beat England in the Euro 2024 final.

If people want the Ballon d'Or to be given to the best player, the most influential and consistent performer for the teams they play for, then Rodri should be the 2024 winner.

Jonathan O'Shea - Vinicius Junior

Amid a strong field of contenders, Vinicius Junior is clear favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or, and he would be a deserving recipient of football's top individual prize. The brilliant Brazilian bagged both Real Madrid goals in the Champions League semi-final first leg against Bayern Munich, and in the decider against Borussia Dortmund, he scored the goal that essentially confirmed them as European champions.

The 24-year-old ended last term with 10 goal involvements from as many Champions League appearances - only Harry Kane played a part in more - and despite missing a big chunk of the season he still racked up 20 in La Liga, where Real reclaimed top spot.

Joel Lefevre - Rodri

This award traditionally goes to an attacking player that has bagged their share of goals or displayed mesmerising skills at a consistent level. However, my vote this season goes to defensive midfielder Rodri, who may not have the moments of magic that we saw from Jude Bellingham or Vinicius Jr but played an integral part in Man City's success last season.

He was the lynchpin to his club's trophies and I do not think there was anybody more valuable to their team than him. He equally played a huge part in Spain's triumph at Euro 2024, where he was named the player of the tournament.

When healthy he is everywhere on the field and essential to most of the attacks and defensive stops made for both his club and country. His injury earlier in the season may hurt his chances but for me his teams' successes were mainly thanks to his contributions.

Andrew Delaney - Vinicius Junior

The Ballon d'Or winner is often the worst kept secret in football, and as overwhelming favourite it seems certain Vinicius Junior will take the award this year.

Playing a pivotal role in Real Madrid's Champions League win tilts the chances in his favour over the likes of Rodri, despite his Euro success, and the stunning performance against Borussia Dortmund earlier this week suits that narrative.

Babatunde Kolawole - Vinicius Junior

Vinicius Jr. is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or and rightly so, as his contributions last season propelled Real Madrid to the Champions League and La Liga double.

While Rodri seems like another obvious choice giving what he achieved with Spain, Vinicius edges this as he produced more big moments alongside his consistency.