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Preview: Real Betis vs. Osasuna - prediction, team news, lineups

sportsmole.co.uk, 16 January 2023, 11:30
Real Betis and Osasuna take a break from trying to secure Champions League football for next season by meeting in the Copa del Rey last 16 on Wednesday.

The two clubs currently occupy sixth and seventh position in the La Liga standings, trailing fourth-placed Atletico Madrid by goal difference and one point respectively.

Match preview

Possessing the joint-second best defensive record in La Liga, Manuel Pellegrini will be satisfied with how Real Betis have performed for large periods of the campaign.

However, he will acknowledge that there can be no let-up from his squad, with the sixth-placed outfit still just two points clear of ninth position.

Since the resumption, four points have been collected from games with Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano, setting the team up to travel to the Middle East for the Supercopa de Espana.

Betis gave a good account of themselves, twice coming from behind to get back on level terms with Barcelona, only to lose to the eventual winners in a penalty shootout.

Despite that disappointment, Pellegrini will take the positives, with his team also coming from behind to thrash Ibiza Islas Pitiusas by a 4-1 scoreline in the previous round.

After a strong first period of the campaign, Osasuna head coach Jagobo Arrasate would have been grateful for the World Cup break with his side suffering two defeats in succession to Barcelona and Real Sociedad.

That gave Arrasate and his squad a chance to reset, and they have returned to competitive action by collecting four points versus Athletic Bilbao and Mallorca.

As a result, Los Rojillos are now just one point adrift of the Champions League places and have a chance to improve on that standing with a home fixture versus Atletico Madrid to come before the end of the month.

Osasuna have already been required to play three games in this competition, requiring extra time to get the better of Gimnastic Tarragona by a 2-1 scoreline in the last round earlier this month.

Real Betis Copa del Rey form:

W

Real Betis form (all competitions):

W

D

D

W

W

L

Osasuna Copa del Rey form:

W

W

Osasuna form (all competitions):

L

W

L

W

D

W

Team News

Pellegrini will consider freshening up his Betis XI with William Carvalho and Loren Moron among those who could be handed a recall.

Juanmi is also pushing for an opportunity on one of the flanks, but the back four could remain the same.

Meanwhile, Arraste is likely to stick with the majority of the team which battled their way past Mallorca on Saturday.

Ruben Garcia will be considered for a chance on one of the flanks, as will Kike Garcia down the middle of the attack.

Pablo Ibanez misses out through suspension after his dismissal in the last round, although he would not have started this game.

Real Betis possible starting lineup:

Bravo; Ruibal, Pezzella, Felipe, Miranda; Carvalho, Rodriguez; Henrique, Fekir, Sanchez; Moron

Osasuna possible starting lineup:

Fernandez; Moreno, Hernandez, D.Garcia, Sanchez; Oroz, Torro, Gomez; Avila, Budimir, R.Garcia

We say: Real Betis 1-0 Osasuna

With near identical results since the resumption, this should prove to be a hard-fought contest between two well-match sides. Both teams possess strong defensive records in the top flight, and we see Betis prevailing by a solitary goal.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Betis win with a probability of 47.53%. A win for Osasuna has a probability of 28.08% and a draw has a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Betis win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Osasuna win is 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.48%).

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