Preview: Derby County vs. MK Dons - prediction, team news, lineups

Over the weekend, the Rams ended a three-match losing run in this competition, winning 2-0 at Forest Green, while the Dons sit three points above the relegation zone following a 1-1 draw with Portsmouth.

Match preview

The race for potential promotion into the Championship is as close as can be down the stretch of the season, with Derby locked in a three-way tie alongside Peterborough United and Bolton Wanderers on 67 points.

Unfortunately for Paul Warne, his side are on the outside of the playoff picture at the moment, currently with a +20-goal differential, which is one fewer than Peterborough and two fewer than Bolton.

They have six games left to try and get into the top six, and last Friday was a good start, scoring two minutes into their match with Forest Green after being shut out in its three previous encounters.

That early goal proved massive as Derby had trouble breaking through Forest Green's tight midfield setup for much of the contest but were sharp in the air and did well to cut off space in the attacking third, limiting the home side to just a single effort on target.

Five of their remaining six league fixtures will be against teams below them in the table, beginning on Monday, where they have lost consecutive home fixtures versus MK Dons by a 1-0 margin.

Derby are winless in three successive home fixtures in this competition after going unbeaten in their previous 12, eight of which were clean sheets.

They are far from being clear of relegation danger, but the Dons are showing plenty of fight, extending their unbeaten run in the league to five matches on Friday.

Despite being down a goal after 14 minutes at home to Portsmouth, MK kept plugging away, eventually finding a breakthrough in the second half after playing a good portion of the encounter with a man advantage.

That was the first time in five league games that they had conceded the opening goal and only the fourth time over this domestic campaign that the Dons had earned a point after facing a 1-0 deficit.

In 2023 Mark Jackson has often seen two different-looking sides at the start of their road fixtures, one which goes in front early on and the other falling behind in the early stages.

Since conceding 10 goals in two February road fixtures, the Dons have looked much more compact defensively away from home, conceding one or fewer in three of its last four games and losing only once over that span.

Their finishing has not exactly been top-class this season, scoring the third-fewest goals among the teams in the bottom half of the table, while relying heavily on individuals to carry them through.

Derby County League One form:

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W

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W

MK Dons League One form:

L

W

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W

D

D

Team News

On Friday, James Chester made his first start for Derby County since October having previously incurred a calf injury, while Warne brought Conor Hourihane and Louie Sibley into the opening lineup instead of Max Bird and Craig Forsyth.

An early penalty from James Collins gave them the lead at Forest Green, with David McGoldrick netting his 17th of the campaign in the latter stages, while Joe Wildsmith picked up his first domestic clean sheet since late February.

In their previous League One meeting versus Milton Keyes last November, goals from Haydon Roberts, Collins and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing helped Derby to a 3-1 victory.

Jackson went with an unchanged starting 11 at home to Portsmouth, allowing Dons captain Dean Lewington to make his 788th career league appearance, moving him alongside David James for seventh all-time in English football history.

Mohamed Eisa notched the equaliser for MK, his first of the campaign since early March, while Louie Barry, currently on loan at Salford City had the only strike when they fell to Derby earlier this season.

Max Dean is still seeking his first start with the Dons since joining in January from Leeds United, Sullay Kaikai has not been in the opening lineup since scoring in a March 18th game versus Accrington Stanley (1-0), while Jonathan Leko has been in the starting 11 in each of their last three games.

Derby County possible starting lineup:

Wildsmith; Smith, Davies, Cashin, Roberts; Hourihane, Knight; Barkhuizen, McGoldrick, Sibley; Dobbin

MK Dons possible starting lineup:

Cumming; Stewart, Tucker, Lewington; Watson, Maghoma, Johnson, Harvie; Leko, Eisa, Kaikai

We say: Derby County 2-0 MK Dons

Even though the Dons have been the more consistent side over the past few weeks, we believe Derby are well-suited to beat the visitors because they are sharp on set pieces, aerial duels and attacking down the wings, all things that MK have had trouble dealing with all season.

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