Cincy captured the opening match between the two, 3-0 at home on Sunday, putting them a win away from a second successive trip to the Eastern Conference Semi-finals.
Match preview
The words must-win have to be familiar to Troy Lesesne and his Red Bulls by now, as New York have been in that scenario numerous times over the past few weeks.
Without a victory this weekend, it will mark the end of their campaign, while it will also be the fourth time in their last five First Round appearances that they fail to advance beyond this stage of the MLS Cup playoffs.
New York entered the month of October winless in three successive MLS home fixtures but have woken up in both of those categories since then, winning consecutive league fixtures at Red Bull Arena by a combined score of 8-2.
They have won two of their previous three playoff outings at Red Bull Arena, including a 5-2 victory in the Wild Card round against Charlotte FC earlier this year, with their only defeat over that stretch coming at home to Cincinnati in the opening round of the 2022 post-season (2-1).
Seven of their 11 victories during the regular season occurred when they had netted multiple times, while they have only dropped points once in MLS all year when doing so (2-2 draw versus Charlotte FC).
They have only conceded one first-half goal in their previous four competitive matches at Red Bull Arena (1-1 draw versus Austin FC), winning four successive encounters when netting in the opening 45 minutes.
This is the time of year when contending teams are truly tested, and the Orange and Blue passed their opening test with flying colours, scoring on their only three targeted efforts on Sunday.
That was the fifth successive time this year that Cincy had emerged victorious versus an MLS opponent when scoring the opening goal, and they have not lost a domestic contest all season when doing so.
With a victory this weekend, Pat Noonan's men would only be the second Supporters' Shield winning side to eliminate their first playoff opponent since 2019, with Los Angeles FC doing so a year ago.
The Orange and Blue are unbeaten in their last five MLS away contests but are winless and goalless in the playoffs as the visiting team, losing their only encounter last year at the Philadelphia Union (1-0).
Cincinnati have won 25 matches across all competitions in 2023, four shy of the league record set by the Red Bulls in 2018, while four more wins in the playoffs this year would be enough to see them lift the MLS Cup for the first time.
They are unbeaten in their last six trips to Red Bull Arena in all competitions, including their dramatic playoff comeback victory there a season ago.
New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer form:
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FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer form:
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Team News
On Sunday, the Red Bulls were without Hassan Ndam due to a sore thigh, Cory Burke sat out with a groin strain, Dante Vanzeir was sidelined as the result of a back problem and Lewis Morgan missed another game because of a hip injury.
Tom Barlow has scored in his last two home fixtures, while Elias Manoel, John Tolkin and Luquinhas have at least one goal involvement in their previous two games played at Red Bull Arena.
Carlos Coronel has conceded five goals in his last two MLS league contests between the sticks, as many as he gave up in his previous five fixtures combined.
Nick Hagglund, London Aghedo and Santiago Arias will be questionable for Cincinnati on Saturday because of leg injuries, while Stiven Jimenez is dealing with a lower leg fracture.
Yerson Mosquera, Aaron Boupendza and Malik Pinto each made their playoff debuts in the opening match of this series last weekend.
Alvaro Barreal notched a brace against the Red Bulls in the opening match of this series, the sixth time this year that an FC Cincinnati player has scored multiple times in one game and the first since Brandon Vazquez versus Toronto on September 30 (3-2 win), while Luciano Acosta had a goal and an assist for the 13th time across all competitions in 2023.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Duncan, Reyes, S. Nealis, Tolkin; Fernandez, Amaya, Carmona, Luquinhas; Barlow; Manoel
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Mosquera, Miazga, Murphy; Gaddis, Nwobodo, Kubo, Barreal; Acosta; Vazquez, Badji
We say: New York Red Bulls 0-1 FC Cincinnati
Even with their backs against the wall, we expect the Red Bulls to be patient and passive in this must-win fixture, but we do not believe it will be enough to get the better of a Cincinnati side that did not appear to feel the pressure of being the top seed, while they are more than accustomed to winning close games.
How to watch
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