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Preview: Gillingham vs. Carlisle United - prediction, team news, lineups

sportsmole.co.uk, 23 March 2023, 14:09
Gillingham host promotion-chasing Carlisle United on Saturday in a meeting between two of League Two's in-form sides.

The Gills bolstered their gap to the relegation zone with a 2-1 victory against Crewe Alexandra in midweek, while Carlisle United moved back into the top three with a goalless draw with Bradford City on Tuesday.

Match preview

The evening ended in three more points for Gillingham against Crewe, but the triumphant manager Neil Harris was not there to hear the final whistle, skulking off after a red card for his protestations against the "shambolic decision" to rule out a late goal for Oli Hawkins - the judgement did not impact the final score as Aiden O'Brien had already cancelled out Callum Ainley's second-half equaliser to take Gillingham 10 points clear of the drop.

The former Millwall boss was drafted in by Gillingham in January 2022 to save them from relegation in League One - it did not work and 12 months later the Gills were languishing at the bottom of League Two.

Somehow Harris kept his post and has inspired his side out of the drop zone with a riotous start to the new year; Gillingham have taken 27 points from their last 14 league games - only one other League Two team can match that tally during the same time frame; Carlisle.

Gillingham have won six of their last seven home games, the only aberration being a 2-0 loss to fifth-placed Bradford City at the end of February.

Harris puts the uptick in form down to the club's change in ownership, claiming Gillingham are "united again" after American businessman Brad Galinson ended Paul Scally's hotly controversial 27-year reign as owner in December.

Carlisle, by comparison, have been buzzing around the playoff spots all season and Paul Simpson has had his side sat snugly in the top four at the end of every weekend since Boxing Day.

Simpson's side are the division's top scorers - Gillingham have found the net less often than any other club - but were held to a second consecutive 0-0 draw away to Bradford City during the week, three days after second-placed Stevenage ground the same result.

Carlisle are chasing the club's first promotion since 2006 when the Cumbrians finished top of League Two just a year after bouncing straight back from the fifth tier of English football.

Simpson has his side sandwiched in the middle of a devilishly crowded race for the final two automatic promotion spots behind league-leading Leyton Orient, as Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton Town are separated by just one point.

Saturday's match is unlikely to descend into a fight for the ball, as only Walsall have recorded less possession than Gillingham and Carlisle in England's fourth tier this season.

Both clubs may share a similar distrust of the ball, but their composure in front of goal contrasts dramatically; Gillingham have the lowest shot conversion rate in England's fourth tier while Carlisle are the division's most clinical side, finding the net with 13% of their attempts - almost twice the efficiency of their upcoming hosts.

Gillingham League Two form:

L

D

D

W

L

W

Carlisle United League Two form:

W

W

W

W

D

D

Team News

Gillingham striker Scott Kashket has suffered a setback in his recovery from a groin injury - although, this may only hinder his chances of a move to England's fifth tier as a spot in the Gills starting XI has been hard to come by.

Harris had urged his players to show a response in midweek to the disappointment of limply losing to Walsall last Saturday, but the difference against Crewe was made by a substitute as O'Brien netted the winner within a minute of his arrival, providing him with a strong argument for a starting berth this weekend.

Defender Paul Huntington missed Carlisle's midweek draw with Bradford due to an abdominal injury which Simpson confirmed was "not too serious".

Joel Senior was forced off in last weekend's contest following a heavy challenge, but Simpson revealed that his removal was not due to injury, "he was just absolutely shot to pieces".

Centre-back Ben Barclay made his third appearance since August after a season plagued by injury but may well retain his place in a back three which Simpson lauded as "absolutely outstanding" after preserving a clean sheet against Bradford.

Gillingham possible starting lineup:

Morris; Alexander, Ehmer, Masterson, McKenzie; Jefferies, Williams, Dieng, O'Brien; Nichols, Hawkins

Carlisle United possible starting lineup:

Holy; Senior, Feene, Barclay, Armer, Mellish; Moxon, McCalmont, Guy; Edmondson, Dennis

We say: Gillingham 0-2 Carlisle United

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