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Premier League title, top four, relegation and playoff permutations in last week

mirror.co.uk, 17 May 2022, 11:34
Manchester City and Liverpool can still win the Premier League title, Everton, Leeds and Burnley are battling to stay up and Tottenham are on the verge of securing fourth

Premier League fans have been spoilt this year as the race for the title, top four and survival go down to the wire.

There are just 14 fixtures remaining in 2021-22 campaign, starting with Liverpool's outing against Southampton at St Mary's on Tuesday evening. A further three games will take place on Thursday before Matchday 38 unfolds and all is decided once and for all.

It promises to be quite the occasion, a perfect end to the 30th Premier League season. If it's even half as dramatic as the 20th term - when Manchester City won the title thanks to Sergio Aguero's last-gasp strike - then we're in for a treat. Here, Mirror Football confirms the permutations ahead of the final round of fixtures - an essential guide for every fan.

Title race

What's your Premier League predictions? Let us know in the comments below!

There's only one place to start. This season's title race has been a classic, with two relentless sides in City and Liverpool going head-to-head for the ultimate prize. Pep Guardiola's side are currently four points ahead of the Reds, who boast a crucial game in hand.

City could be crowned champions as early as Tuesday if Southampton pull of a shock victory, although that seems unlikely. Jurgen Klopp's side haven't lost a Premier League game in 2022, dropping just four points. Yet it's not impossible.

If Tuesday's game ends in a draw, Guardiola's side will have one hand on the trophy. Liverpool would need to beat Wolves at Anfield, City to lose to Seven Gerrard's Aston Villa and overturn a seven-goal swing to snatch the title on the final day.

Even if Liverpool beat Southampton, City can win the Premier League with victory against Villa. They can also win the title if they draw or lose and Liverpool fail to better their result on the final day.

Presuming they beat the Saints, the Reds can win a joint-record 20th English crown if they beat Wolves and City fail to beat Villa. A draw will also be enough if City lose by eight goals to Villa. I can confidently say that will not happen.

In terms of an unprecedented play-off, the two teams need to finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored. They also need to have the same head-to-head record - which won't be an issue after both games between the two teams finished 2-2.

City's goal difference is seven better than Liverpool's - and Guardiola's side have also scored seven more goals than Klopp's. It would take something remarkable for a play-off to be required.

Top four battle

Arsenal need a miracle if they're to snatch the final Champions League spot. Tottenham are currently two points ahead of their nearest rivals and their goal difference is 15 better.

To finish fourth, Arsenal need to beat struggling Everton at home on the final day and hope Spurs lose at Carrow Road to bottom club Norwich. They can also get fourth if Tottenham draw and they beat the the Toffees 16-0. That won't happen.

Victory against the Canaries will guarantee Antonio Conte's side Champions League football, and a draw should be more than enough. They'll also clinch fourth if Arsenal fail to beat Everton.

In terms of head-to-head, Tottenham's 3-0 win against the Gunners last week trumps Arsenal's 3-1 win at the Emirates in September. Spurs have also scored eight more goals than Mikel Arteta's side, just to give them another advantage.

Relegation fight

Three teams can still be relegated from the Premier League: Burnley, Leeds and Everton. Watford and Norwich are already down.

Burnley are 18th on 34 points but have two games remaining - against Aston Villa (away) and Newcastle (home). Their goal difference is -18, scoring 32 goals.

Everton are 16th on 36 points and they also have two fixtures left - against Crystal Palace (home) and Arsenal (away). Their goal difference is -20, scoring 39 goals.

Leeds are 17th on 35 points but, crucially, they have just one game remaining away at Brentford. They also have a -38 goal difference, scoring 40 goals.

It's perhaps too early to calculate the exact permutations of the relegation battle - considering Everton and Burnley are both in action on Thursday - but the most likely scenarios are as follows.

The Toffees will be safe if they beat Palace or Arsenal. Frank Lampard's side should also stay up if they pick up two draws or better Burnley's final two results. If Leeds fail to beat Brentford, Everton should survive - regardless of their results against Palace and Arsenal.

Leeds must beat Brentford and hope either Everton fail to pick up two points or Burnley fail to win four points to realistically survive. Leeds will be staring into the abyss if Everton or Burnley both win their penultimate games.

Burnley should stay up if they secure a point from their final two games and Leeds lose to Brentford. Four points should also be enough to avoid the drop, while three points will do the trick if Everton fail to draw and lose heavily.

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