France U23svs.Spain U23s

After both nations saw off North African opponents to reach the decider, they now battle it out to stand on the podium's top step for just a second time in their history.

Match preview

Following a fiery quarter-final win over Argentina, only one game separated France from a place in the Olympic final, as Thierry Henry's team attempt to win their country's first football gold since 1984.

However, it took two Jean-Philippe Mateta strikes to spur a fightback and beat 10-man Egypt in Lyon, after Les Bleus came perilously close to missing out and being forced into a playoff for bronze.

Mateta's late leveller from a Michael Olise pass was not the first time the erstwhile Crystal Palace teammates had linked up this summer, and the big striker then headed the hosts in front nine minutes into extra time.

Olise later sealed the deal with a goal of his own, guaranteeing France a first football medal in 40 years, but highly-driven boss Henry now wants to claim one of the few prizes missing from his glittering CV.

The former World and European champion saw his side win all of their group matches at these Games, while scoring seven goals and keeping three clean sheets, and they have conceded only a single goal so far.

Desperate to join the French gold-rush in Paris, they will not lack motivation for Friday's showpiece, but their opponents are equally keen on extending a golden year for Spain.

Aiming to replicate the senior squad's heroics in Germany last month, Spain's Olympic team have reached the final in impressive fashion, with their only defeat coming when a much-changed XI started the final group game.

La Roja cruised past Japan in the quarter-finals, setting up a last-four clash with Morocco on Monday, when they found themselves trailing heading with less than half an hour remaining in Marseille, where the Moroccans had the lion's share of support.

Proving they could find the mettle to fight back from behind, Santi Denia's side then staged a spirited revival, as Barcelona star Fermin Lopez levelled matters on 66 minutes before setting up substitute Juanlu Sanchez to strike a late winner.

Olympic champions on home soil in 1992, Spain then reached the gold-medal match at Sydney 2000, and they are now trying to go one better than three years ago in Japan, when they painfully lost out to Brazil and settled for silver again.

Lopez and Alex Baena were both involved in La Roja's victory at Euro 2024, so they will be riding the crest of a wave heading into another major final - and this time all the pressure will be borne by their expectant hosts.

Spain Olympic Games Men's Football form:

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France Olympic Games Men's Football form:

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Team News

Once again, France captain Alexandre Lacazette and chief creator Michael Olise should support Jean-Philippe Mateta up front for France, and Thierry Henry's team could be almost unchanged for Friday's gold-medal decider.

Teenager goalkeeper Guillaume Restes starts behind a back four that features Sevilla's Loic Bade and Castello Lukeba in central defence, but there may be a switch of personnel in midfield.

Manu Kone and Enzo Millot both return to the squad following suspension - the former for accumulated bookings; the latter having received a post-match red card in the tempestuous tussle with Argentina.

Meanwhile, Spain's star man so far has been Fermin Lopez, a member of Spain's triumphant Euro 2024 squad who scored twice in the Olympic quarter-final and then played a key role in the semis.

Eric Garcia - back in the final after coming so close three years ago - should feature at the heart of La Roja's back four, partnering Barcelona prodigy Pau Cubarsi,

Arnau Tenas starts in goal, while Abel Ruiz leads the line up front, with support from Lopez and Manchester City's versatile wide man Sergio Gomez.

Spain possible starting lineup:

Tenas; Pubill, Cubarsi, Garcia, Miranda; Barrios, Baena; Oroz, F. Lopez, Gomez; Ruiz

France possible starting lineup:

Restes; Sildillia, Bade, Lukeba, Truffert; Millot, Kone, Chotard; Olise; Lacazette, Mateta

We say: Spain 2-1 France

Friday's Olympic football finale will mark the first time a European team has won gold in the men's tournament since a Spanish victory at Barcelona 1992 - and La Roja may well be celebrating again.

Spain can spoil the Paris party by edging out their neighbouring nation, as they have sufficient guile to unpick a solid French back four.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a France Under-23s win with a probability of 47.63%. A draw has a probability of 26.3% and a win for Spain Under-23s has a probability of 26.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a France Under-23s win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Spain Under-23s win it is 0-1 (8.48%).

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