The Paris Saint-Germain superstar, 34, faces stiff competition from Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski and Real Madrid forward Karim Benzema, while you can never count out Manchester United and Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo.
France Football editor Pascal Ferre and his executive assistant famously make sure the result is football's best-kept secret, but the winner is informed days before the ceremony to ensure they understand how proceedings will work.
At that point, the secret is out of their control, and there is little the organisers can do to stop the newly-informed winner spreading the news to family and friends.
As rumours of a Messi victory swept through Twitter, as per The Sun, Italian reporter Matte Moreno responded by writing: "Messi, his friends already know."
Meanwhile, in Spain, El Chiringuito host Josep Pedrerol posted: "Messi, Benzema, Lewandowski…"
Messi was superb for Barcelona in the opening half of 2021 and finally won a major international trophy at the Copa America with Argentina.
However, his form since joining PSG last summer has been questionable, netting just one Ligue 1 goal in six matches.
Besides a brief moment of quality in the build-up to Kylian Mbappe's goal, Messi was anonymous during the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday - and numerous videos have emerged of the Argentine failing to press his opponents.
While it appears likely Messi will win the Ballon d'Or at Monday night's ceremony, former Real Madrid and Netherlands midfielder Rafael van der Vaart gave a damning assessment of his current form.
"He goes for a walk now and then and I think, 'Aren't you ashamed?'" he said on Dutch TV channel Ziggo Sports.
"I'm starting to get angry with Messi and that's a shame because a player like that will never be born again.
"It started under Ronald Koeman [at Barcelona]. It was actually a refusal to work and that's not right for a player like Messi."
However, it looks like Ronaldo's ambition to have more golden balls than Messi will be beyond him.
In an interview with The New York Times, Ferre said the Man United star would love to retire with more in his trophy cabinet.
"I know because he has told me," while also revealing his pride in keeping the winner a secret.
"I don't want to lie [to those asking who the winner is]. But I tell them that I can't share their name because the winners do not know yet, and it would not be right for them not to be the first to find out."