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Preview: Croatia vs. Spain - prediction, team news, lineups

sportsmole.co.uk, 16 June 2023, 15:23
A Croatia side still seeking their maiden international honour butt heads with a Spain outfit aiming to restore former glories in Sunday's 2022-23 UEFA Nations League final in Rotterdam.

The two hopefuls renew hostilities at De Kuip, where Zlatko Dalic's side trounced the Netherlands 4-2 in their own backyard in the semi-finals, before La Roja deservedly scraped a 2-1 win over Italy to book their spot in the showpiece match.

Match preview

Despite technically enjoying home advantage for the Nations League Finals and drawing first blood on the day through Donyell Malen, the Netherlands did little to suggest that they could hold out for the full 90 minutes against Croatia, who subsequently turned the semi-final on its head through Andrej Kramaric's penalty and Mario Pasalic's smart volley.

Noa Lang may have sent the tie to extra time with virtually the last kick of the game - netting in front of the crestfallen Croatia fans - but the Chequered Ones were the dominant force in the extra-time period, where Bruno Petkovic's long-range thunderbolt and Luka Modric's composed penalty sent them through to another major tournament final.

On the back of two podium finishes at the last two World Cups, Croatia's golden generation - led by the timeless Luka Modric, who defied his age and then some in the semi-finals - will now be presented with a shot at international glory in a final for the second time, having coincidentally been on the wrong end of a 4-2 scoreline against France in Russia five years ago.

The Chequered Ones' bid for Nations League stardom began with a paltry one point from their opening two group games, but they have since prevailed five times in a row in the competition and have scored at least twice in each of their last three Nations League games, albeit while also failing to keep a clean sheet in that time.

When the clock ticks past 90 minutes, Croatia always seem to find a second wind, as they have now won each of their last three games that have gone to extra time or penalties - holding their nerve from 12 yards against Japan and Brazil at the 2022 World Cup - but there will be no prizes for guessing who last beat Dalic's side after regulation time.

With a surprise Euro 2024 qualifying defeat to Scotland possibly still lingering in the back of his mind, newly-introduced Spain head coach Luis de la Fuente got exactly the reaction he was after at De Grolsch Veste, where Italy proved to match for La Roja in their Nations League semi-final.

Spain's relentless early pressure forced Leonardo Bonucci into a fatal error, and Yeremy Pino accepted the gift, but Robin Le Normand's dream debut turned into a nightmare with 11 minutes gone, as the Real Sociedad defender's handball presented Ciro Immobile with the opportunity to level the scores from 12 yards - one which he did not pass up.

As the game entered its final knockings, though, Spain always looked the more likely to double their tally, and they did so in highly fortuitous circumstances, as Rodri's long-range strike bounced off two Italian bodies before falling at the feet of Joselu, who had stayed onside and had the simple job of prodding home from close range to punch Spain's ticket to the final.

Beaten finalists in the 2020-21 Nations League against then-World Cup holders France, Spain are still searching for their first piece of silverware since their Euro 2012 triumph - which marked the beginning of the end of Vicente del Bosque's magnificent era - and De la Fuente took a Roja side to the final of a major tournament just two years ago, but they only took a silver medal home from the Tokyo Olympics after falling to Brazil's superiority.

Then again, De la Fuente led Spain's Under-19s to Euros glory in 2015 before repeating the trick with the Under-21s in 2019, and Spain memorably eliminated Croatia from Euro 2020 with a pulsating 5-3 win after extra time in the last 16.

That result represents Spain's second win from their last three against the Chequered Ones - a sequence which also includes a 6-0 obliteration in the inaugural Nations League - but Croatia avenged that loss with a 3-2 success in November 2018, and Dalic's ageing stars will no doubt be aware that Sunday's final may be their last chance to lift a major international trophy aloft.

Croatia Nations League form:

D

W

W

W

W

W

Croatia form (all competitions):

W

L

W

D

W

W

Spain Nations League form:

D

W

W

L

W

W

Spain form (all competitions):

D

L

L

W

L

W

Team News

Croatia centre-back Josip Sutalo was seemingly a little worse for wear when he was taken off before extra time against the Dutch, but there is currently nothing to suggest that the Arsenal-linked defender will have to miss the final - music to the ears of Dalic as he works around Josko Gvardiol's absence through injury.

The Chequered Ones did not sustain any serious concerns on Wednesday evening, and Dalic is now blessed with the best kind of selection dilemma up front, as Kramaric aims to fend off the threat of extra-time hero Petkovic, who may be kept in reserve once more given his recent prowess as a substitute - see Brazil in the World Cup quarter-finals.

Managing to complete 119 minutes of Wednesday's success, Modric's 37-year-old legs continue to produce the goods, and the Real Madrid man should no doubt don the armband from the first whistle, in spite of the quick turnaround.

Similarly, Spain also came through their semi-final with Italy unscathed, although they lost the trio of Juan Bernat, David Garcia and Nico Williams earlier this month, and Leeds United attacker Rodrigo only lasted until the half-time whistle blew on Thursday.

Marco Asensio should no doubt be eyeing a recall to the attack as a result, but Joselu's dramatic late winner is unlikely to be enough to displace Alvaro Morata at the tip of the frontline.

A somewhat surprise starter over Dani Carvajal, 37-year-old Jesus Navas became the oldest male Spaniard to feature in a competitive fixture since 2004, and the Sevilla veteran may have done enough to warrant another start in the final.

Croatia possible starting lineup:

Livakovic; Juranovic, Vida, Sutalo, Perisic; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Ivanusec

Spain possible starting lineup:

Simon; Navas, Le Normand, Laporte, Alba; Merino, Rodri; Asensio, Gavi, Pino; Morata

We say: Croatia 2-2 Spain (a.e.t, Croatia to win on penalties)

With a staggering 22 goals flying into the back of the net during the past four meetings between these nations, a drab goalless affair should be the last thing on the cards, especially with the volume of chances Spain created against Italy and Croatia's clinical nature against the Dutch.

Picking a winner between these two nations over the course of 90 or 120 minutes is frankly impossible, and we would not be surprised to see this tie go the distance. However, with an extra day's rest and a penalty-saving specialist in Dominik Livakovic on the goal-line, it could finally be Croatia's time.

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