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Preview: Benfica vs. Juventus - prediction, team news, lineups

sportsmole.co.uk, 23 October 2022, 19:34
With one side seeking a pass to the last 16 and the other scrapping for Champions League survival, unbeaten Benfica and an ailing Juventus meet at Estadio da Luz on Tuesday.

Juve travel to Lisbon teetering on the brink of elimination after being humbled by Maccabi Haifa last time out; leaving them five points adrift of the top two in Group H. Meanwhile, their hosts will assure progress if they beat the Serie A side for the second time in a matter of weeks.

Match preview

Successive 1-1 draws with co-leaders Paris Saint-Germain have not only put Benfica on the verge of making it through to the Champions League knockout stages again, but also established them as a potential team to be wary of in the last 16.

The Eagles extended their unbeaten start to the season to 17 games by holding PSG in the French capital, as Kylian Mbappe and Joao Mario traded goals from the penalty spot in a closely fought match. Having already won 2-1 in Turin on Group H's second matchday, they are now favourites to finish the job back on home turf.

Roger Schmidt's side have since taken their undefeated tally to 19, after turning over Primeira Liga title rivals Porto on Friday, as Rafa Silva's second-half strike edged out their 10-man opponents to put them six points clear at the summit. That followed a shootout win over third-tier Caldas in the Taca de Portugal a week previously, when Schmidt named a much-changed XI.

Now returning to the continental scene, Benfica will book their place in the post-World Cup action if they win on Tuesday, or even if they draw and Haifa cannot topple PSG. They are therefore set to reach the knockout phase in consecutive seasons for only the second time.

The two-time European champions last had a longer run without losing in the Champions League over a decade ago, and a settled side has played its part in such success: Schmidt has made only one change to his starting XI in Europe this season - the fewest of any team.

If such consistency was not enough of a psychological edge, history is on their side too, as the Lisbon club have won all three of their previous home games against Juventus; scoring twice on each occasion.

In fact, Juve have won just one of their seven European games against Benfica following last month's loss in Turin, when they squandered an early advantage to go down 2-1 against quite clearly the better side.

Max Allegri's men then went on to defeat Maccabi Haifa at home, but were beaten 2-0 in Israel last time out, by a club that had lost each of their last nine group-stage games.

As a result of their fourth loss from six amid Europe's elite, the Bianconeri will be unable to reach the last 16 if they do not win on Tuesday. They could still finish third and reach the Europa League should they fail again, but Allegri knows that fate is unacceptable to both the fans and his paymasters.

Facing elimination from the group phase for the first time since 2013, then under former coach Antonio Conte, Juventus had qualified for the knockout rounds for eight consecutive seasons coming into the current campaign - even as their star has declined over the past few years.

Recent events on Italian soil have, though, at least calmed choppy waters around Allegri and his much-criticised squad, as they followed up last week's Turin derby win with a comprehensive four-goal defeat of Empoli on Friday; Adrien Rabiot scoring twice in the final few minutes at the Allianz Arena.

While the 1996 Champions League winners still reside outside Serie A's top six, they have at least bolstered brittle confidence before a potentially make-or-break period of the season: after battling it out with Benfica, Juve will host PSG and Inter at the start of November.

Benfica Champions League form:

W

W

W

W

D

D

Benfica form (all competitions):

W

D

D

W

D

W

Juventus Champions League form:

L

L

W

L

Juventus form (all competitions):

W

W

L

L

W

W

Team News

No other team has used as few players as Roger Schmidt's Benfica so far in the Champions League (18), and the Austrian coach's preference for continuity should see him name a familiar XI on Tuesday.

While Morato remains out of action due to injury, and Julian Draxler joins him on the sidelines following a thigh injury sustained against Porto, winger David Neres - who scored the winner in the reverse fixture - recently returned and made a substitute appearance on Friday.

Since the start of last season, Joao Cancelo is the only full-back to have made more assists (six) than Benfica's Alejandro Grimaldo (four) in the Champions League, and the latter starts on the left of the hosts' back four; Alexander Bah and Gilberto battle it out for a place on the right.

In midfield, Enzo Fernandez has completed the most passes, made the most tackles and recovered possession most often for the Eagles in Europe this season.

Juventus, meanwhile, will be without ex-Benfica star Angel Di Maria again, while his compatriot Leandro Paredes is now out until next month with a thigh injury suffered in Empoli. Bremer and Mattia Di Sciglio are the visitors' defensive absentees.

Both Paul Pogba and Federico Chiesa are nearing comebacks, but will not be risked just yet, so Weston McKennie and Moise Kean hope to keep their places after finding the net on Friday; scorer of the opening goal against Benfica last month, Arkadiusz Milik aims to displace the latter.

Star striker Dusan Vlahovic has scored just once in four Champions League appearances so far, but leads the line up front.

Benfica possible starting lineup:

Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Silva, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Fernandez, Luis; Mario, Rafa, Neres; Ramos

Juventus possible starting lineup:

Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, Rugani; Cuadrado, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Milik, Vlahovic

We say: Benfica 1-1 Juventus

These two European giants are experiencing very different campaigns to date, with the Eagles of Benfica flying high and apparently unbeatable; the Old Lady has significantly slowed.

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