Preview: Ajax vs. Heerenveen - prediction, team news, lineups

De Superfriezen, who are in a heated race for the Conference League playoff places, will be seeking to get one over the hosts, having lost each of the last five meetings between the sides since 2019.

Match preview

High-flying Ajax were denied a third win on the spin last Sunday as they could only salvage a 2-2 draw with fifth-placed AZ Alkmaar when the sides met at the AFAS Stadion.

After going behind to Brian Brobbey's 42nd-minute opener, Vangelis Pavlidis and Hakon Evjen scored in a 13-minute spell to turn the tie around and put the hosts ahead before Edson Alvarez netted in the 89th minute to force a share of the spoils.

Prior to that, Ajax suffered a gruesome 2-1 defeat at the hands of PSV Eindhoven in the Dutch Cup final on April 17, before seeing off NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie respectively.

Eric Ten Haag's side are now unbeaten in each of their last eight league outings, picking up seven wins and one draw since a 2-1 loss away to Go Ahead Eagles back in February.

Ajax, who are the most decorated side in the Eredivisie with 34 league titles, could now confirm their fourth consecutive league crown with a win on Wednesday as they boast a four-point cushion over second-placed PSV Eindhoven with just two games left to play.

Heerenveen, on the other hand, returned to winning ways last time out when they came from behind to see off sixth-placed Vitesse 2-1 at the Gelredome Stadium.

After falling behind to Matus Bero's first-half penalty, the visitors rallied and upped the ante in the second period as Amin Sarr scored a brace in the final 15 minutes to turn the game on its head.

Prior to that, Ole Tobiasen's side saw their six-game unbeaten run come to an end courtesy of a 2-1 loss to AZ Alkmaar on April 23 before playing out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Cambuur eight days later.

Sunday's victory over Vitesse was also Heerenveen's first on the road in 2022 as they picked up three draws and lost four of their previous seven away games since a 2-1 win at Cambuur back in December.

De Superfriezen have picked up 10 wins, eight draws and lost 14 of their 32 games to collect 38 points and sit eighth in the league standings, level on points with ninth-placed NEC Nijmegen just outside the Conference League qualification playoff places.

While Heerenveen will look to claim successive away victories and strengthen their claim for a place in the Conference League, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in the league since 2009.

Ajax Eredivisie form:

Ajax form (all competitions):

Heerenveen Eredivisie form:

Heerenveen form (all competitions):

Team News

Ajax remain without several key players down the spine of the team as the likes of Ryan Gravenberch (ankle), Antony (ankle) and Sean Klaiber (knee) have been sidelined through injuries.

The goalkeeping duo of Remko Pasveer and Andre Onana continue their spells on the sidelines, meaning former Everton man Maarten Stekelenburg will start between the sticks once again.

Argentine defender Lisandro Martinez is set to sit out his fourth consecutive game having picked up a muscle problem against PSV on on April 17, while Noussair Mazraoui is a doubt after coming off injured against AZ Alkmaar last time out.

As for Heerenveen, 26-year-old defender Pawel Bochniewicz continues his long road to full fitness after picking up a severe ACL injury in last July's pre-season game against Groningen.

He is joined on the De Superfriezen injury table by fellow defender Nick Bakker after the 29-year-old came off with a 43rd-minute injury in the game against Cambuur on May 1.

Joost van Aken is also a doubt for Wednesday's tie, having missed the game against Vitesse through injury, meaning Lucas Woudenberg should retain his place on the left side of the back three once again.

Ajax possible starting lineup:

Stekelenburg; Rensch, Timber, Blind, Tagliafico; Taylor, Alvarez, Klaassen; Haller, Brobbey, Tadic

Heerenveen possible starting lineup:

Mulder; van Beek, Dresevic,Woudenberg; van Ewijk, Kaib, Haye, Tahiri, Halilovic; van Hooijdonk, Sarr

We say: Ajax 2-0 Heerenveen

Following PSV's draw at Feyenoord, Ajax are now in pole position for the Eredivisie crown and we expect them to come out all guns blazing in search of the title-sealing victory. Looking at past results against Heerenveen, Ten Haag's men have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture and we are backing them to extend this fine run and claim all three points once again.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ajax win with a probability of 89.48%. A draw has a probability of 7.1% and a win for Heerenveen has a probability of 3.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win is 3-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 4-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (3.14%), while for a Heerenveen win it is 1-2 (1.11%).

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