Preview: Mexico vs. Costa Rica - prediction, team news, lineups

Despite a 1-0 defeat in its previous outing versus Qatar, the Mexicans still finished first in their group with six points, while Los Ticos advanced the hard way, defeating Martinique 6-4 on matchday three, their first victory in the 2023 tournament.

Match preview

Mexico are back in a familiar position, qualifying for the knockout stage of this competition, just as they had done in every previous Gold Cup.

Their defeat versus Qatar was the first for Jaime Lozano as interim manager, while it also ended a 16-match unbeaten run for El Tri in the group stage of this competition.

Despite that, this team under Lozano have looked much more like the Mexico of old, usually on the front foot, while creating plenty of opportunities, with over 55% possession in each of its three group fixtures, including 77% against the Maroons last Sunday.

This team trailed Qatar from the 27th minute until the final whistle, the longest time that El Tri had ever been behind in any single Gold Cup fixture, a minute longer than its defeat versus South Africa in 2005 (2-1).

The Mexicans have not lost a Gold Cup quarter-final match since falling 2-1 versus Colombia in 2005, keeping their opponents off the scoresheet in four of its last five appearances in the last eight.

It has been nearly 10 years since Mexico suffered a defeat to Costa Rica, dropping an October 2013 World Cup qualifying match against them (2-1), while they have shut out Los Ticos in each of their last four meetings.

With a place in the quarter-finals nearly out of reach, the Costa Ricans came up big when they needed it most, defeating Martinique on matchday three in a record-setting goal fest at Red Bull Arena.

The six goals scored by Costa Rica were as many as they had managed in seven previous matches combined and two more than they had notched in their six games played this year.

Luis Fernando Suarez does not have a great track record versus Mexico in his managerial career, beating them only once in eight previous meetings, with that lone triumph coming when he was in charge of Honduras in 2013 (2-1), while his Costa Rican team have failed to score in their only two matches played against El Tri since the Colombian took charge.

Saturday will be the 13th successive appearance for this team in the quarter-finals of this competition, with La Sele losing out at this stage in 2021 and 2019, failing to score two years ago in a 2-0 defeat versus Canada.

Costa Rica have never beaten El Tri at the Gold Cup though this team came pretty close in 2019, taking them to penalties in the quarter-finals and leading halfway through that penalty shootout before missing two of their final four spot kicks as they went on to lose.

They have been forced to battle back countless times at this stage of the tournament, conceding the opening goal in five of their previous six quarter-final appearances, losing on all five of those occasions, while Los Ticos have never won a knockout stage encounter at the Gold Cup when conceding first.

Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

W

W

L

Mexico form (all competitions):

D

L

W

W

W

L

Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

L

D

W

Costa Rica form (all competitions):

L

L

L

L

D

W

Team News

With their place in the last eight already assured, Lozano brought in several new faces to the opening lineup against Qatar, with Julian Araujo, Israel Reyes, Gerardo Arteaga, Ozziel Herrera, Carlos Rodriguez and Santiago Gimenez coming into the starting 11 in place of Jesus Gallardo, Johan Vasquez, Jorge Sanchez, Erick Sanchez, Henry Martin and Uriel Antuna.

Guillermo Ochoa is up to 140 international caps, good for sixth all-time with Mexico and only six behind Gerardo Torrado, while Rodriguez is now just four shy of 50, Roberto Alvarado needs two more to reach 40 and Gallardo is a dozen caps away from hitting the century mark.

A Pineda penalty in September 2021 gave them a 1-0 victory over Los Ticos, while El Tri overcame a penalty miss from Raul Jimenez when they battled Costa Rica in the 2019 Gold Cup quarter-finals as Luis Montes, Alvarado, Gallardo, Hector Moreno and Carlos Salcedo all converted from the spot, with Ochoa saving the final kick in sudden death.

Only two changes were made to the Costa Rican starting 11 from matchday two to three as Wilmer Azofeifa and Anthony Contreras entered the lineup in place of Aaron Suarez and Carlos Mora.

Los Ticos got off the mark quickly on matchday three, with Kendall Waston putting them in front after nine minutes, before an own-goal from Patrick Burner restored their one-goal advantage late in the opening half, while Juan Pablo Vargas, Contreras, Joel Campbell and Diego Campos also found the back of the net with the latter scoring his first for the national team.

Celso Borges and Elias Aguilar were the first two Costa Ricans to step up and score for this team in that 2019 Gold Cup shootout versus El Tri before Randall Leal misfired from 12 yards away and although Oscar Duarte and Francisco Calvo converted their efforts, Keysher Fuller saw his shot saved, as Los Ticos were eliminated from this competition.

Mexico possible starting lineup:

Ochoa; Araujo, Alvarez, Vasquez, Gallardo; E. Sanchez, Chavez, Romo; Antuna, Martin, Pineda

Costa Rica possible starting lineup:

Chamorro; Fuller, Waston, Vargas, Calvo; Azofeifa, Borges; Campbell, Mora, Madrigal; Contreras

We say: Mexico 1-0 Costa Rica (extra-time)

Do not expect the Costa Ricans to have the same amount of time and space on the ball versus the Mexicans like they had on matchday three, as El Tri have dominated the possession battle so far in this competition and have not allowed many clear-cut opportunities.

These sides have plenty of experience to count upon and are both solid defensively, but Mexico have shown a little more consistency and should also have more energy, which is why we are giving them a slight edge this weekend.

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