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Arsenal's Premier League title chances assessed after Chelsea draw and Paul Merson claim

sportsmole.co.uk, 12 November 2024, 15:48
Arsenal dropped two points rather than gaining one in their 1-1 Premier League draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but there were signs of the "old" Gunners team in West London.

That is the view of Arsenal expert Charles Watts, who spoke exclusively to Sports Mole in the wake of the derby stalemate that left Mikel Arteta's men nine points behind Liverpool at the summit of the top-flight table.

"Going to Stamford Bridge and getting to a draw is never really a bad thing," Watts said. "But in Arsenal's position, they absolutely set out for this season wanting to win the title and now find themselves nine points behind Liverpool, who are streaking away and not looking like they're going to be dropping too many points in the near future, it has to be seen as another two points dropped for them.

"It was a tough one to sum up. I think from Arsenal's point of view, it was much better than what we've seen recently. They've obviously been struggling for form, for confidence, but there were signs in this game that this was more like the old Arsenal."

Arsenal drew first blood in that intriguing all-capital clash at Stamford Bridge, where Martin Odegaard - back in the first XI for the first time since August after an ankle injury - floated a delightful ball to the back stick for Gabriel Martinelli to tap in at Robert Sanchez's near post.

However, Pedro Neto quickly drew the Blues level before Arsenal pushed for a winner in added time, but with the very last attack of the game, Leandro Trossard scuffed a close-range shot wide with the goal gaping and Kai Havertz also ready to pounce.

While hailing the importance of Odegaard's return to the team, Watts admitted that the Trossard/Havertz incident could come back to bite the Gunners, even if there was a hint of offside in the build-up.

'Arteta rolling on floor encapsulated Arsenal's Chelsea draw'

"The fact that you had Martin Odegaard starting in the team for the first time in such a long time, it's no coincidence that they just looked better and they looked more likely to create," Watts continued.

"He's clearly not fit yet, but the fact that he could come in after so long out playing 90 minutes and still have such a big influence on the game when probably playing at about 60, 70% fitness was a huge thing. So there was definitely positives to take from it.

"But at the end of the day, I think the final scene you saw was Mikel Arteta lying on the turf when that chance went begging. Whether it was offside or not, we'll never know. But that scene of Arteta on the floor encapsulated perfectly how Arsenal felt at that moment, because the win was there for the taking and they didn't take it. And that could prove really costly given the position they're in. There were positives to take, but ultimately it was two points dropped again."

As well as falling further adrift of Liverpool during their miserable four-game winless run in the Premier League, Arsenal have failed to capitalise on Manchester City's failings, with the reigning champions losing two on the spin against Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Pep Guardiola's ailing side still hold a five-point lead over Arsenal, who are below Chelsea in fourth place on goal difference, but Watts does not believe that Arteta's men are entirely to blame for their indifferent start to the season.

"I think Arteta knows it's just not very much room for error now, given the start of the season Arsenal have had. And I think he knew that and I think his reaction at the end showed that as well. It's been a tough start to the season for Arsenal, really tough, given the away fixtures they've had," Watts added.

"And you don't want to use injuries as an excuse, but they have had injuries to really key personnel. They've had to chop and change constantly. I don't feel like luck is going their way so far this season as well. Obviously you make your own luck. I know that. And again, it's not an excuse, but it does feel like the rub of the green, the really crucial moments in games are not falling for them."

Is Arsenal's nine-point gap to Liverpool "insurmountable"?

"And it felt like that was the same thing with that Chelsea incident right at the end; time and time again, that will end up in a goal. Trossard won't touch it, Havertz will have a tap in. But it's just the way things seem to be going for Arsenal right now."

Nevertheless, Watts is not ruling Arsenal out of the race completely and believes that they can still make up the nine-point deficit to Liverpool at the summit due to the fixture list getting kinder, adding: "I don't know if it's me being naive and underestimating Liverpool,but I look at that gap and the first thing I'm doing is looking at the gap to Manchester City rather than the gap to Liverpool. That might just be me being naive because Liverpool are streaking clear and this isn't a young and experienced Liverpool team.

"This is a Liverpool team that's been there and done it and won the Champions League and won the Premier League. Yes, there's been a few changes in personnel, but you've still got the heartbeat of that side. You've still got Alisson in goal, you've still got [Ibrahima] Konate and [Virgil] van Dijk at the heart of the defence.

"You've still got Trent [Alexander-Arnold] and [Andy] Robertson there. You've got Mo Salah up front, who you know is going to get you so many goals. And so they're not an inexperienced Arsenal side like the Arsenal side were a couple of years ago, who streaked clear early on and eventually got reeled in by Manchester City.

"So it is going to be a challenge to claw that gap back on Liverpool. But I don't think it's insurmountable yet. I just think what Arsenal have to do is now they've navigated this really tricky run, which they've had at the start of the season, you know, five away games out of the first 11 away at Manchester City, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa.

"They've got through this run and they're still within touching distance of City. Yes, Liverpool are a little bit further clear, but what they have to do now is come back from this international break between now and New Year. Basically, they've got eight winnable fixtures, or on paper you'd look at it and say they're winnable fixtures.

"They've got to take maximum points or near enough maximum points from that run. And then you get to the New Year, you see where you are, you see if you've closed the gap and if you have, and if it's within, say, five points, it's all to play for in the second half of the season.

"Don't forget, Liverpool were five points clear of Arsenal last February and Arsenal reeled them in and ended up being about seven points ahead of them at the end of the season. So it is not insurmountable, but it's going to be a hell of a challenge."

Watts agrees with Arsenal legend as 12 points claim made

In the wake of Sunday's draw with Chelsea, former Arsenal man Paul Merson told Sky Sports that the Gunners can kiss their title hopes goodbye if Liverpool increase their lead to 12 points, and Watts has conceded that such a chasm would likely end Arsenal's hopes of glory for another year.

"If you're talking nine or 12 points in January, February, then yeah, you're in that territory of it being insurmountable. It would take a remarkable collapse from a Liverpool team that's too experienced that you would expect that they would actually do that," Watts added.

"But we are only 11 games in. And that's why I'm looking at this period now after this international break in the run-up to New Year is just absolutely crucial for Arsenal and for Man City and anyone else, because we can't really rule Chelsea out. When you look at the league table, Chelsea are still there in the mix and they've got such a good team and a good squad that you can't sit here right now and say they're not going to challenge for this title and maybe some other teams as well.

"So whoever does have designs on winning this title, I think this period in the run-up to Christmas and before New Year, they've just got to go on a hell of a run and see what Liverpool do. Will Liverpool drop points? They have got some tricky games coming up. They've had a good little run Liverpool before this international break when the games got harder and they dealt with it pretty well.

"But then they've got another period coming up. City are obviously coming up soon after the international break. I think there's Spurs, other teams as well. And Liverpool haven't really been tested on their travels yet. And, you know, they came to the Emirates and they got a good draw in the end, left it late, but got a draw. Fair play to them for that.

"But they've got some really tricky away games they're going to have to navigate. Arsenal have got those out of the way so far this season, which is, you would hope from their point of view, will be a boost going over the second half of the season. So you need to close that gap.

"I think Merson is right. You don't want to get into 12, 15 points, even at this early stage. You've got to start putting the pressure on and seeing how Liverpool handle it. This next run of games is going to be absolutely key."

Arsenal's first fixture back after the international break comes at home to high-flying Nottingham Forest on November 23, before also taking on West Ham United (November 30), Manchester United (December 4), Fulham (December 8), Everton (December 14) and Crystal Palace (December 21) in the lead-up to Christmas.

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