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Preview: Croatia vs. Turkey - prediction, team news, lineups

sportsmole.co.uk, 10 October 2023, 18:17
As Euro 2024 qualifying moves towards next month's conclusion, Group D's top two convene on Thursday evening, as Croatia host Turkey in Osijek.

The two nations are locked on 10 points apiece heading into this international period, but Croatia have both a game in hand and a psychological advantage from winning in Turkey earlier in the process.

Match preview

Having played one match fewer than their qualification rivals due to appearing at this summer's UEFA Nations League finals, Croatia nonetheless occupy pole position in Group D and are yet to taste defeat in their attempt to reach a sixth successive Euros.

World Cup runners-up in 2018 and, more recently, Nations League finalists, Zlatko Dalic's side are ultimately aiming to break the glass ceiling and claim glory in Germany next year, just before some of their established stars finally depart the stage.

While Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic may be nearing the end of the road, it was another Croatian 'untouchable', Manchester City's Mateo Kovacic, who bagged a brace in their 2-0 away victory over Turkey in March, but their victims that day still pose a threat in tightly-packed Group D.

Only pointless Latvia are totally cut adrift, but Armenia and Wales both have seven points after five fixtures and either could pounce if either Croatia or Turkey slip up this month or next.

Seeking to maintain their three-point buffer inside the group's all-important top two, the Kockasti still have a tough trip to Cardiff ahead of them this week, before wrapping up their campaign against Latvia and Armenia in November.

First, though, FIFA's sixth-ranked nation host co-leaders Turkey, having drawn all three of the teams' previous meetings on Croatian soil.

Stepping up from his role as Adana Demirspor coach, former Fiorentina boss and Italy striker Vincenzo Montella will certainly experience a baptism of fire in his first game as Turkey manager, when his team travel to Osijek this week.

Sunday's meeting with Latvia should prove a more straightforward affair - although the Crescent-Stars needed a last-gasp goal to beat the Baltic minnows in June - so all focus will be trained on Montella's dugout debut.

Having recently replaced Stefan Kuntz as Turkey's national coach, the man once known as Il Aeroplanino due to his 'wings out' goalscoring celebration has been charged with getting an underperforming squad on a flight to Germany next summer.

While Istanbul's 'big three' boast an array of stars following record Super Lig investment in the recent transfer window, Turkish fortunes on the international stage have faltered in recent times.

Kuntz was sacked after drawing 1-1 with old foes Armenia and then losing 4-2 to Japan in a subsequent friendly, overshadowing back-to-back wins against Latvia and Wales that had put his side in pole position for Euro 2024 qualification.

Having missed out on the World Cup for the past two decades and barely made an impact on the European Championship finals since a superb run to the semis in 2008, Turkey are now aiming to finally punch their weight.

However, there are fewer sterner tests of a team's mettle than tackling Croatia on home turf: the hosts have never lost a European qualifier at home, recording 13 wins from their last 15.

Croatia Euro Champ Qualifying form:

D

W

W

W

Croatia form (all competitions):

D

W

W

L

W

W

Turkey Euro Champ Qualifying form:

W

L

W

W

D

Turkey form (all competitions):

W

L

W

W

D

L

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Team News

Led by 168-cap skipper Luka Modric, Croatia have named a typically experienced squad this month, although Ivan Perisic is out of action for the foreseeable future having sustained an ACL injury while on Tottenham Hotspur duty.

Feyenoord winger Luka Ivanusec - who scored in the 5-0 win over Latvia - is also ruled out by injury, so Fiorentina's Josip Brekalo could come into the hosts' starting XI.

Key defender Josko Gvardiol will miss Sunday's game against Wales if booked in midweek, but despite Zlatko Dalic's decision to cut both Marin Pongracic and Duje Caleta-Car from his preliminary squad, several alternatives are available if required.

Meanwhile, Turkey's Merih Demiral must serve a suspension due to accumulated bookings, so Vincenzo Montella could partner Caglar Soyuncu with Kaan Ayhan in central defence.

Real Madrid starlet Arda Guler remains sidelined following knee surgery, and Cengiz Under has not been called up, so Galatasaray's Kerem Akturkoglu will be the main source of creativity. Uncapped Juventus forward Kenan Yildiz has been included but is likely to have only a watching brief.

Hakan Calhanoglu captains the Crescent-Stars from midfield, with Manchester United reserve Altay Bayindir and Trabzonspor's Ugurcan Cakir battling it out to start in goal.

Croatia possible starting lineup:

Livakovic; Juranovic, Vida, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Kramaric, Petkovic, Brekalo

Turkey possible starting lineup:

Cakir; Celik, Ayhan, Soyuncu, Ozkacar; Yuksek; Kahveci, Kokcu, Calhanoglu, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz

We say: Croatia 2-1 Turkey

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